ACLED Research Analyst Melissa Pavlik tracks Islamic State activity outside of its former “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria, evaluating the militant group’s continued potential for global disruption.*


*Correction: This infographic previously included activity where the specific faction of Boko Haram involved in the event (Barnawi or Shekau faction) was unknown based on reporting. As such, it may have included events linked to the Shekau faction of Boko Haram, which claims affiliation with the Islamic State (IS) but is not officially recognized by IS leadership in the Levant. The visual has been updated to show only activity specifically linked to the Barnawi faction of Boko Haram in reporting, which maintains formal ties to IS. It now excludes all activity in which reports only attributed activity to ‘Boko Haram’ — where it is unknown whether the faction involved was specifically the Barnawi faction or not. This means that events attributed to the Barnawi faction of Boko Haram in this visual are likely under-reported as a result of the media environment resulting in a more conservative estimate of IS activity in Nigeria. For more information around how ACLED codes Boko Haram factions, see this methodology brief.


© 2019 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). All rights reserved.

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Beyond the Caliphate: The Islamic State’s Global Future
Melissa Pavlik
Melissa Pavlik
Research Analyst
Melissa Pavlik is a Research Analyst at ACLED studying overarching trends of armed conflict across and within ACLED’s regions of study. She has degrees in Statistics and Political Science from the University of Chicago, and is currently studying in the War Studies Department at King’s College London. Her research focus include violent non-state actors and the intersection between the international political economy and political violence.
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