A selection of visuals highlighting continental and country trends in political violence are included below. The data is drawn from ACLED Version 6.

Trend 1: Rates of Violence in 2015

Recent scholarly work suggests a decline in violence rates generally; however, when considering multiple forms of political violence, the rate of conflict occurrence in Africa has risen over the past 18 years.

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Trend 2: Agents of Violence in 2015

While every type of politically violent actor has increased their violence rates since 2009, organized, armed conflict in Africa is now mainly perpetuated by political militias and governments.

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Trend 3: Violence Against Civilians in Africa in 2015

While the rate of violence against civilians decreased last year (from approximately 42% of all organized armed conflict in 2014 to 40% of events in 2015), the rate of reported civilian fatalities increased. Over 12,460 civilian fatalities were reported in Africa in 2015, largely driven by political militias.

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Trend 4: Trends in Violence by Country in 2015

Somalia, Sudan, Libya, Nigeria, Egypt, and South Sudan are the most violent (see Figure 1) and deadliest states (see Figure 2) across Africa, at present. The levels of violence these different states experience reflect the diversity of the security challenges facing countries across the African continent.

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Trend 5: Violent Conflict Actors in Africa in 2015

The most active and deadliest conflict actors can be categorized into two camps. Somalia is home to the 3 most active conflict actors in Africa: Al Shabaab, military forces, and unidentified armed groups (UAGs). Nigeria is home to the 3 deadliest conflict actors in Africa (in terms of civilian targeting): Boko Haram, UAGs, & the Fulani ethnic militia.

 

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