Somalia, Libya, Sudan, Nigeria, and South Sudan are the most violent and deadliest states across Africa, at present.[1] The levels of violence these different states experience reflect the diversity of the security challenges facing countries across the African continent.

In 2014, Somalia, Sudan, and Nigeria were responsible for 26%, 10%, and 9%, respectively, of all organized, armed conflict on the continent. This is a continued pattern from 2013, when these states were responsible for approximately 33%, 10%, and 9%, respectively.  Libya and South Sudan join the list of most violent countries and are responsible for 10% and 8%, respectively of violent conflict in Africa. Meanwhile, DR-Congo, high on the list in 2013, saw a reduction in their relative violence rate to 7% of violent conflict on the continent last year.

The differences in conflict across high activity areas underscores how political violence is closely associated with the capacity of state and the political relationships found between regimes and political elites. Somalia continues to be host to a civil war in which international and Federal Government troops have made significant territorial gains since late-2011. Yet there continue to be challenges in establishing security and rule of law within recaptured cities and towns. Conflict events and fatalities tend to be clustered in the southern part of the country.  While Al Shabaab loses control over areas and communities, political elites are competing with militias for local dominance and regime positions. Somalia is responsible for over 11% of conflict-related fatalities (or 4,425 deaths) on the continent last year, making it the country with the third highest number of organized, armed conflict-related fatalities.

Libya saw a tripling of the number of battles (approximately 500 battles in 2014, up from 160 battles in 2013).  The country also saw a more than doubling of both remote violence tactics (approximately 280 instances of remote violence, up from 110 in 2013) as well as violence against civilians (approximately 270 instances of civilian targeting in 2014, up from 108 instances in 2013).  Conflict can be attributed to state military forces, rebels (e.g., the Libyan Rebel Forces), political militias (e.g., Ansar al-Sharia), and communal militias (e.g., the Misratah communal and the Zintan ethnic militias). Over 6% of all organized, armed conflict-related fatalities in Africa last year (or 2,628 deaths) are attributed to Libya.

Sudan continues to face multiple, overlapping and discrete crises within the country. On-going sources of instability include simmering tensions with South Sudan; a campaign of violence against opposition groups in the south of the country, with increased activity by pro-government militias and the Rapid Support Forces; and increased violence in the Darfur region. Sudan is responsible for over 10% of organized, armed conflict-related fatalities (or 3,888) on the continent last year, making it the country with the fourth highest number of organized, armed conflict-related deaths.

Similarly, Nigeria faces multiple challenges to security and stability in the country, which are largely geographically discrete. The most high-profile involves the violent Islamist insurgency in the northeast of the country led by Boko Haram, by far the deadliest non-state actor (i.e., responsible for the most fatalities) in all of Africa in 2014. Inter-communal conflict in the country’s middle belt also rages on, led in large part by the Fulani ethnic militia. As a result, Nigeria is the deadliest country in Africa by far, housing over 29% of all organized, armed conflict-related fatalities in Africa last year (or 11,360 deaths); this is almost twice the number of fatalities reported in the second deadliest country (South Sudan).

South Sudan saw a stark increase in its levels of violence between 2013 and 2014, nearly doubling its rate and proportion of violent conflict in Africa. Conflict in South Sudan is made up of multiple security challenges ongoing since 2011. But much of the recent conflict is due to the civil war that began in December of 2013 between forces loyal to president Salva Kiir and SPLA/M-In Opposition leader and former vice-president Riek Machar. Despite an international mediation effort and numerous rounds of peace talks, conflict between the groups continues, and further conflict is anticipated. This activity is clustered in oil rich Upper Nile state, as well as the Greater Upper Nile region at large. In addition to the civil war between government and rebel forces, political and communal militias are also active in the center of the country. South Sudan is the second deadliest country in Africa, responsible for over 16% of all organized, armed conflict-related fatalities (or 6,383 deaths) on the continent in 2014.

Central African Republic also saw an increase in its levels of violence between 2013 and 2014, similar to South Sudan, nearly doubling its rate and proportion of violent conflict on the continent. In CAR this is due to a doubling of both the number of battles in the western portion of the country (over 260 battles in 2014) as well as civilian targeting led by the Anti-Balaka and Séléka militias (over 530 instances of violence against civilians in 2014). 8.5% of all conflict-related fatalities (or 3,282 deaths) on the continent in 2014 are attributed to CAR.

The least violent states in 2014 (when riots and protests are excluded) include Benin, Botswana, Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon.

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[1] Riots and protests are excluded from the count.